What is the Fate of CPO Price in 2025? Here's the Prediction

Crude palm oil (CPO) prices continue to be a concern. On Tuesday trading (28/1/2025), the CPO contract to be at MYR 4,192 per ton. This movement illustrates the challenges and opportunities for the palm oil sector amid global dynamics and domestic policies.

Palm oil production from two major producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, is expected to decline due to extreme weather and logistical challenges. This has sparked concerns of supply constraints. However, export reports from Intertek Testing Services and AmSpec Agri Malaysia showed that shipments of palm products from Malaysia fell by 23% in the period January 1-20, 2025 compared to the previous month. Declining demand from major markets such as India and Pakistan was the main factor for the weak exports.

Meanwhile, China remains the dominant market with a 19.76% increase in demand through 2024. However, dependence on this market poses new risks. Amid competition from vegetable oils such as soybean and sunflower oil, Indonesian palm oil producers need to seek market diversification to maintain competitiveness.

The Indonesian government's policy requiring exporters to keep 100% of their export proceeds in domestic banks starting March 2025 poses an additional challenge. The move is aimed at strengthening domestic liquidity, but adds to the burden for industry players who have to hold capital for an entire year.

Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto is optimistic that this policy will create better economic stability. However, industry players are concerned about the impact on profit margins, especially amid volatile CPO prices. With production costs continuing to rise, this policy could affect exporters' competitiveness in the global market.

From a technical perspective, CPO prices are currently in a bearish neutral zone with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48. Stochastic RSI at 3.54 indicates an oversold condition, providing an opportunity for a rebound in the short term. Important resistance levels are at MYR 4,350 per ton, while the closest support is at MYR 4,111 per ton.

If the price manages to break the pivot at MYR 4,558, the chances of strengthening to MYR 4,667 to MYR 4,860 become greater. Conversely, failure to maintain the support level could push prices deeper down, reflecting market uncertainty.

CPO prices throughout January 2025 showed high volatility, reflecting global market dynamics and domestic policies. Despite significant challenges, the outlook remains promising if industry players are able to adapt quickly. Market diversification, production efficiency, and technological innovation are key to facing global competition.

For exporters, 2025 is the year when strategy matters. Amidst policy challenges and market pressures, capitalizing on opportunities in uncertainty will be the difference between success and failure. Because, as we are often reminded, “behind every challenge, there is always an opportunity waiting to be seized.”

Sumber : https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/research/20250128111817-128-606284/bagaimana-nasib-harga-cpo-di-2025-begini-prediksinya